Malaysian palm oil： the impact of production and export, weakening under pressure.

[Market trends of palm oil and soybeans] BMD palm oil fell by RM 53 to RM 3,848/ton. CBOT soybeans rose 11 cents to 1011.75 cents per bushel. CBOT soybean oil rose 0.6 cents to 39.87 cents per pound. According to data released by the Indian Solvent Extractors Association on Thursday, the country’s palm oil imports in August fell by more than a quarter from the previous month to 797,482 tons, down 26% from 1,081,730 tons in July. As domestic stocks were abundant and refining profits were negative, edible oil refiners cut back on purchases. The US Department of Agriculture released the September supply and demand report on Thursday, and the global palm oil ending inventory in 2024/25 is estimated to be 17.574 million tons; The global palm oil ending inventory in 2023/24 is estimated to be 18.253 million tons. Among them, the ending inventory of Indonesian palm oil in 2024/25 is estimated to be 6.478 million tons; The ending inventory of palm oil in Indonesia in 2023/24 is estimated to be 7.138 million tons. According to the latest data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Crushers Association, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 3.54% from September 1 to 10, 2024, the unit yield of fresh oil palm fruit string decreased by 3.23%, and the oil yield decreased by 0.06%. Monitoring data show that on September 12th, Indonesian crude palm oil reported US$ 1,005, Malaysian crude palm oil was equivalent to US$ 923, and Indonesian Malay spread was US$ 82, which was the same as last day.The price difference in the same period last week was $79. The monitoring data showed that on September 12th, Argentina’s soybean oil reported 923 dollars, Malaysia reported 970 dollars in 24 degrees, and the oil price difference between soybean and palm was-47 dollars, up 23 dollars from-70 dollars in the previous day. In the same period last month (September 12th), the spread was-12 USD, while in the same period last year (September 12th), the spread was 63 USD. Affected by the seasonal increase in output and the continued slowdown in exports, the horse palm continued to be under pressure and weakened after the shock consolidation, with the support of RM 3,800 below. In terms of US soybeans, the market expects the monthly report or maintains the US soybean yield forecast unchanged, which is still 53.2 pu/acre, and the forecast range is from 52 pu/acre to 54.9 pu/acre. In the early stage of the market, the high yield of American soybeans was continuously digested. It is expected that the report will have little impact, and CBOT soybeans will support around 970 cents below. Domestically, at this stage, the market procurement is light, the pattern of contract execution by factories remains unchanged, the spot basis quotation falls steadily, and some areas weaken slightly. In terms of vegetable oil, the prices of high-quality rapeseed in Jiangsu and Sichuan areas along the Yangtze River have been slightly raised, which has aggravated the market’s worries. In some areas, the price has been raised, and the basis quotation has fallen steadily. Operation suggestion: shock adjustment, palm oil 7700-7800, soybean oil 7600-7800, vegetable oil 8800-9100.