China will announce the peak of CPI ＂double 11＂ express delivery in October.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei client November 8 (Zhao Jiaran) The "double 11" war has started ahead of schedule. Next week, besides preparing enough "chop hands" budget, there are also these heavy financial events that may affect your "wallet". Let’s watch it in advance!
Data release
Next week, China will release the data of M0, M1 and M2 in October, as well as the data of CPI and PPI in October. The United States will release October CPI, PPI, etc., and Germany will release November ZEW economic climate index, October CPI and other data.
Market hotspot
First, October CPI, PPI, M2 and other data will be released.
On November 10th and October, CPI and PPI will be announced. Many institutions expect that CPI is expected to continue to narrow in October. In addition, the data of M0, M1 and M2 in October will be released on November 11th.
CICC recently released a research report, predicting that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will drop from 1.7% in the previous month to around 0.5% in October, and may further decline in November. However, the year-on-year growth rate of non-food prices may be relatively stable, and the year-on-year growth rate of service prices may improve. It is expected that PPI will maintain positive growth in October, and the year-on-year decline will narrow slightly from 2.1% in September to 2%.
According to a research report released by soochow securities, the recovery of PPI in China is still strong, and consumption and investment are accelerating. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5% month-on-month, and the decline of PPI is expected to narrow in October, and it is expected to close at -2.10% year-on-year. In addition, M2 is expected to close at 10.5% in October.
Second, the peak period of "double 11" express delivery is approaching.
The State Post Bureau held a special press conference on service guarantee in the peak season of express delivery business. According to reports, the peak season in 2020 ranges from the beginning of November to the eve of the Spring Festival in 2021 (February 12), totaling 103 days. Among them, during the "double 11" period (November 11th to 16th), there will be a peak season, and it is estimated that the daily average express delivery business volume will reach 490 million pieces, which is about twice the daily business volume.
According to the State Post Bureau, this year is the 11th peak season for the postal express delivery industry to systematically organize and meet the express delivery business. At present, the enterprise has added 490,000 temporary workers, 100,000 vehicles and 5.39 million square meters of processing space, increased transportation capacity reserves, and added high-speed rail express lines.
Third, in the fourth quarter, the voucher-type savings bonds was issued on the 10th.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in the fourth quarter, savings bonds will start issuing on October 10th and November 10th respectively, and the electronic savings bonds will be issued on October 10th with a term of 3 years and 5 years, with annual interest payment. On November 10th, savings bonds with certificates was issued, with a term of 3 years and 5 years, and the principal and interest will be repaid in one lump sum.
It is reported that the two issues of treasury bonds are issued to individuals at face value, and the sales face value must be an integer multiple of 100 yuan. The two issues of national debt are registered national debt, registered in real-name registration system, which can be reported as loss, but not negotiable. Two issues of treasury bonds may not be redeemed in advance during the issuance period, but may be redeemed in advance after the issuance period. The early redemption business can only be handled through the counter of the business outlets of the members of the underwriting syndicate.
Four, the central bank’s open market 320 billion yuan reverse repurchase expires.
Wind data shows that there will be 320 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due in the central bank’s open market next week (November 7 to November 13), including 50 billion yuan, 120 billion yuan, 120 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan and 0 yuan from Monday to Friday respectively, and there are no repurchase and central bank bills due.
Stock market outlook
I. Opportunities for new shares
Wind data shows that next week, two new shares will be listed first, and eight new shares will be purchased online.
On November 9th (Monday), N Wantong (stock code 830839.OC) and N Haosen (stock code 688529.SH) will be listed soon. Among them, N Wantong is a professional equipment manufacturer dedicated to the design, development and manufacture of hydraulic machinery products; N Hausen specializes in intelligent equipment, assembly technology and comprehensive solutions for complete sets of customized products.
On November 9th, three other companies subscribed, namely Dezhong (stock code: 838030.OC), Kangping Technology (stock code: 300907.SZ) and Huichuangda (stock code: 300909.SZ).
On November 10th, Northland (stock code: 430047.OC) will make a subscription.
On November 11th, three new shares were subscribed, namely Zhongjing Food (stock code: 300908.SZ), Mingxin Xuteng (stock code: 605068.SH) and Zhongkong Technology (stock code: 688777.SH).
On November 12th, Cube Pharmaceutical (stock code: 003020.SZ) will make a subscription.
Second, institutions look at the market
Gf securities: how to grasp the "production expansion" cycle of export chain?
A shares exclude the profit growth rate of the third quarterly report of finance -5.92% (the profit growth rate of the interim report is -25.04%). Non-financial A-shares recorded the highest Q3 quarter-on-quarter growth rate since 2003, and we revised the A-share profit forecast for the whole year. Under the assumption that the epidemic will not affect the large-scale asset impairment, it is predicted that the annual non-financial net profit growth rate of A shares will increase to double digits.
On the whole, in the past 20 years, the "three-table repair"+production capacity has been cleared, but the medium and long-term economic growth expectations are weak, and the enterprise’s "expansion of production" is all ready, and it still lacks the east wind; Structurally, the epidemic has reshaped the global industrial chain, and China’s export chain boom is expected to continue to improve, which is expected to start a new round of "production expansion" cycle.
Huajin Securities: The total amount of funds has shrunk slightly, and some pro-cyclical sectors have been added.
Looking ahead, it is possible that the total amount of A-share funds will tend to be stable; The total amount of new shares issued in October decreased compared with the previous month. At the same time, the rate of reduction of industrial capital in October also declined, which is expected to reduce the contraction pressure of A-share funds. However, it is worth noting that Public Offering of Fund’s positions, especially those of partial-share funds, are still at a relatively high level, and may face some pressure of position contraction in the future. It is necessary to continuously observe whether the incremental funds brought by fund issuance can cover possible fund position fluctuations.
The change trend of capital preference from the third quarter to the present: short-term funds turn to pro-cyclical and optional, while medium-and long-term funds pay more attention to pro-cyclical, and the intention of holding positions within technology consumption is divided.
Southwest Securities: New Kinetic Energy of Digital Economy Growth in 2021
Thoughts on stock selection in overseas industries With the Internet industry entering the second half, the competing growth among giants and the need to expand their ecology, this paper puts forward some differentiated views, such as paying attention to the ecological opening dividend of giant private domain traffic, paying attention to the cognitive gap of Internet enterprises in China, and paying attention to the overseas dimensionality reduction output of Internet models.
Looking forward to 2021, we will continue to pay attention to China’s Internet enterprises and spillover industries, with high-quality growth at home and new expansion overseas. With the decline of uncertainty of domestic epidemic situation, the consumer Internet field focuses on the habit solidification of epidemic situation, while the industrial Internet field focuses on value creation and C-side integration. With the uncertainty of overseas epidemic situation, we will continue to pay attention to the behavior solidification of the "home economy" industry overseas and the low-dimensional penetration of the domestic Internet model. It mainly focuses on three growth points: traffic production and precise directional distribution, data production factors and industrialization, and diplomatic geographical advantage dividend. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)